Modelización del sector energético boliviano para alcanzar la neutralidad de carbono en 2050, en el marco de la Transición Energética en Bolivia: Modelling of the Bolivian energy sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, in the framework of energy transition in Bolivian

Miguel Fernández Fuentes

doi:10.52428/20758944.v19iEspecial.450

Authors

Miguel Fernández Fuentes ENERGETICA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52428/20758944.v19iEspecial.450

Keywords:

Sistemas energéticos, Modelización energética, Bolivia, Transición energética, Emisiones del GEI, Política energética, Carbono neutralidad

Abstract

The 2018 IPCC special report on global warming indicates that by 2050 all CO₂ emissions on the planet must be neutralized, not to not exceed the 1.5°C global warming. In this context, Bolivia is making efforts in its electric sector, such as increasing the share of renewable energy and decommissioning inefficient power plants. However, these efforts remain limited when compared to the total national energy demand. Currently, more than 80% of internal energy consumption in Bolivia is of fossil origin.

Under these conditions and in the face of the global climate emergency, how should Bolivia respond to the challenge of decarbonizing its energy sector?

To better answer this question, a long-term optimization model of the Bolivian energy sector was developed with OSeMOSYS, considering the national energy demands, disaggregated by fuel and type of consumer. The model has a bottom-up approach focusing on techno-economic variables and aims to determine the most cost-efficient solution to cover the projected energy demands until 2050.

Results show that, in a Business as Usual scenario (BAU), by 2040, CO₂e emissions from the energy sector will practically double compared to 2020 and 96% of energy sources will be fossil fuels. To analyse potential deviations from this trend, four policy-based scenarios are modelled: 1) electrification of energy demands (EED); 2) introduction of carbon taxation (CTI); 3) gradual reduction of fossil fuel subsidies (NSR); 4) implementation energy efficiency measures (EEM).

While each of these scenarios have limited effects over the energy system, a synergistic effect is achieved when a simultaneous implementation of their measures is analysed (MP). In this scenario the participation of the electricity in the Bolivian energy consumption reaches 87% by 2050, of which over 96% is produced by renewable sources, and emissions are reduced by 74% in 2050 compared to the BAU scenario. However, while this scenario starts a transition process in the energy sector, it would still not become emission-free by 2050.

Achieving carbon neutrality in the energy sector by 2050 (CN) would require a large investment just to cover capital costs of new powerplants, close to a yearly investment between 2020 and 2050 of 10% of the current national GDP of Bolivia. Given that this value would represent 22 times the investments required in a BAU scenario, complementary measures with other sectors or technologies need to be explored to find more feasible and cost-effective solutions.

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