Analyses and calculation of the extreme event discharges with stochastic storms in the Misicuni basin – Cochabamba, Bolivia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52428/20758944.v19i54.939Keywords:
SpanischAbstract
Hydrological studies of extreme events are of great importance for the design, operation and control of reservoirs. In the present research, the basin of the Misicuni reservoir located in the Tunari mountain range of the city of Cochabamba was analyzed based on the information of the rainfall stations in operation within the basin and according to different hydrological methods for the determination of maximum flows.
The stochastic method was applied using specialized software developed by the Universidad de los Andes in Colombia and financed by the IDB[1] (IT-LluviaNH and IT-Inundación). PADF curves[2] and 300 elliptical storm scenarios were determined for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. For each scenario, stochastic hydrographs were determined at the sub-basin level and at the dam site using the HEC-HMS[3] and HEC-RAS hydraulics[4] hydrological models.
The conventional deterministic method has been developed through Thiessen polygons, IDF curve analysis[5], design storms for different return periods, and the application of the HEC-HMS platform.
The graphical and numerical comparison of the hydrographs at the outlet of the basin allowed us to verify the variation between the methodologies applied and to validate their influence on the spillway of the dam through the transit of floods over the reservoir.
Maximum stochastic flow rates were lower than those determined by conventional methodologies. This is due to the non-uniformity of precipitation intensities over the basin area. However, considering the simultaneity of independent extreme event scenarios in each sub-basin (applying very low percentages to the probability of exceedance in the stochastic method), we have similar maximum flows between the methodologies.
Likewise, the calculation of the projection of flows with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years to return periods of 1000 and 10000 years for both methodologies is presented. The impact of the laminated maximum stochastic flows does not pose a risk to the dam spillway as they are lower than the design flow. That is why it will be possible to take into account scenarios that can improve the profitability of the reservoir, but prior to and parallel to a constant capacity of the three main runoffs that enter the reservoir.
1] IDB = Inter-American Development Bank
[2] PADF = (curves) Precipitation, Area, Duration and Frequency
[3] HEC-HMS = Hydraulic Engineering Center – Hydrological Modal System
[4] HEC-RAS = Hydraulic Engineering Center – River Analysis System
[5] IDF = Intensity-Duration – Frequency Curve(s)
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